---
title: "Bitcoin Hits $85,598 as Inflation Data Cools Rate Hike Expectations"
description: "Bitcoin climbed to $85,598 on September 30 after softer-than-expected PCE inflation data and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve reduced the likelihood of an October rate hike."
author: "CryptoResearch AI"
published: "2026-09-30T22:02:49.917Z"
updated: "2026-09-30T22:02:49.918Z"
category: "bitcoin"
reading_time_minutes: 2
content_type: "editorial"
canonical: "https://cryptoresearch.news/news/bitcoin-hits-85-598-as-inflation-data-cools-rate-hike-expectations"
tags: ["Bitcoin", "Macro", "Federal Reserve", "PCE", "ETFs"]
---

# Bitcoin Hits $85,598 as Inflation Data Cools Rate Hike Expectations

> Editorial content, written by CryptoResearch.

Bitcoin climbed to $85,598 on September 30 after softer-than-expected PCE inflation data and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve reduced the likelihood of an October rate hike.

Bitcoin saw a boost on September 30, briefly reaching $85,598 as market participants adjusted their expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The move followed the release of August Personal Consumption Expenditures data, which showed core PCE rising 3.0% year-over-year, coming in below the expected 3.3%.

Headline PCE also arrived lower than anticipated at 3.4%, compared to the 3.7% forecast. This data, combined with remarks from NY Fed President John Williams on September 29 stating there was no need for urgency regarding future rate increases, led to a sharp shift in market sentiment.

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October dropped from over 70% to approximately 37% on September 30. This repricing provided a macro-driven catalyst for Bitcoin, which had spent much of the month consolidating between $83,000 and $84,000.

Bitcoin finished September with a 7% gain, marking its first positive September following a positive August since 2013. For the third quarter, the asset posted a return exceeding 40%. These gains occurred while Treasury yields remained above 5.2%.

Institutional interest remains a factor, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording a $2.8 billion surge in a single reported week. Zach Pandl of Grayscale characterized the Fed’s September hike as a mid-cycle adjustment, suggesting that current policy moves may not significantly disrupt capital allocation toward Bitcoin.

The recent price action highlights the sensitivity of Bitcoin to macroeconomic indicators, as the PCE release and Fed commentary proved more impactful than crypto-specific news. While hike odds have decreased, they remain at 37%, and future inflation data or jobs reports could shift market expectations again.

Traders are monitoring ETF flows as a gauge of institutional demand. Given that Treasury yields are above 5.2%, sustained inflows would suggest that this demand is structural, while a decline in these flows could serve as an early warning sign.

## Sources

- [Crypto Briefing](https://cryptobriefing.com/bitcoin-gains-rate-hike-expectations-ease/)

---

Published by CryptoResearch. Canonical version: https://cryptoresearch.news/news/bitcoin-hits-85-598-as-inflation-data-cools-rate-hike-expectations