Bitcoin Rally Shows Signs of Fatigue as Spot and Futures Demand Cool
Bitcoin's recent momentum is stalling as on-chain data indicates a contraction in spot and futures demand, even as a key market gauge remains near its peak.
Bitcoin is showing signs of a cooling rally after retreating from an eight-month high near $87,400 to trade around $83,300. Despite the pullback, the CryptoQuant Bull Score remains elevated at 90 out of 100, a level reached after BTC broke above its 365-day moving average.
The buying pressure that fueled the recent move is beginning to fade. CryptoQuant reports that spot demand has contracted by approximately 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days. The firm calculates this demand by comparing newly mined supply against changes in long-term dormant coin holdings, noting that the market is currently absorbing fewer coins than are becoming available.
Speculative interest in the futures market is also dropping off. Growth in speculative futures demand fell from roughly 164,000 BTC on September 14 to 16,000 BTC on September 29, representing a 90 percent decline in just 15 days.
Profit-taking has become more prevalent as recent buyers sit on average unrealized gains of 33 percent, the highest level since December 2024. On September 22, traders locked in profits on 25,700 BTC, marking the largest single day of profit-taking this year.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted that rallies struggle to extend without fresh demand. With spot demand in contraction and futures growth stalling, sustaining near-term upside is becoming more difficult.
Altcoin holders are also moving assets onto exchanges, with 76,000 deposits recorded over a seven-day period from 51,000 separate addresses. This is the highest level of altcoin exchange deposits since October 2025, potentially increasing sell pressure if these coins are liquidated.
While Bitcoin saw a modest 0.4 percent gain during Asian morning hours, other majors showed mixed performance. SOL and ZEC each rose nearly 2 percent, while XRP gained about 1 percent. ETH, BNB, and TRX each added less than 1 percent.
Traders are now looking toward a U.S. inflation reading expected later today. Market participants are monitoring the data for potential impacts on interest rates, as higher inflation could strengthen the dollar and weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin, while lower inflation could provide support.
