Bitcoin Recovers 40% From July Lows Amid Institutional ETF Inflows

Bitcoin has experienced a recovery of approximately 40% since its July 1 intraday low of $57,748. As of early September, the cryptocurrency is trading between $79,000 and $81,000, with some intraday movements exceeding $82,000.

The recent price action follows a 25% gain in August, marking the asset's strongest performance for that month since 2017. During this period, Bitcoin reclaimed levels above its 50-month moving average for the first time since the previous crypto winter. Despite this growth, the price remains more than 35% below its 2026 all-time high of approximately $126,198.

Prediction markets, including Kalshi and ForecastEx, currently estimate a 28% probability that Bitcoin will exceed $100,000 by the end of 2026. Analysts note that reaching this figure would require a 25% price increase, and potential selling pressure from investors who purchased near previous highs may hinder upward momentum.

Market recovery is attributed to two primary factors: consistent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs from institutional allocators and shifting macroeconomic conditions that have supported risk assets. Meanwhile, Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin during the same period, appreciating by approximately 56%.