Federal Reserve Rate Hike Expectations Rise Following August Inflation Data

Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the upcoming meeting have risen as core consumer prices increased more than anticipated in August. The shift in market sentiment follows a report showing core CPI rose 0.3% for the month, surpassing the 0.2% increase projected by economists.

The data suggests that inflation remains broad, potentially reinforcing the position of Fed officials who argue that additional tightening is necessary to reach the 2% inflation target. Fed Governor Christopher Waller previously indicated he would consider a rate increase if August data appeared hot.

CME FedWatch data indicates an 88% to 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting. Such an increase would move the benchmark overnight rate from the current 3.50%-3.75% range to 3.75%-4.00%.

Annual core inflation reached 2.4%, easing from 2.5% in July, while headline CPI rose 0.4% monthly and 3.4% annually, both aligning with forecasts. The outlook is further influenced by oil prices rebounding toward $100 a barrel, which economists suggest could keep inflation elevated alongside recent supply disruptions and tariffs.

The inflation report follows strong producer-price data and a robust August jobs report, both of which contributed to higher rate-hike expectations.