Samsung Electronics Forecasts Nine-Fold Profit Jump on AI Chip Demand

Samsung Electronics is expected to announce a third-quarter operating profit of approximately 106.1 trillion won, or $79.1 billion, for the period ending September 2026. This projection represents a nearly nine-fold increase compared to the 12.17 trillion won reported during the same quarter last year.

The company is set to release its preliminary earnings guidance on October 8, 2026. If these figures are confirmed, Samsung could become the first South Korean firm to surpass 100 trillion won in quarterly operating profit, marking its fourth consecutive record quarter.

The primary catalyst for this growth is the demand for high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, which is essential for data centers training and running large AI models. The company's Device Solutions division, which manages its chip business, is expected to see operating margins between 72% and 76%. Revenue estimates for the quarter range from 199 trillion to 202 trillion won, potentially reflecting year-over-year growth exceeding 130%.

Samsung has been increasing its presence in the HBM market, with its market share rising to 33% in the second quarter of 2026, up from 21% in the first quarter. Revenue from HBM4, the latest generation of this technology, is anticipated to triple sequentially in the third quarter and is expected to represent over 60% of the company's HBM revenue for the second half of 2026. Beyond HBM, demand for traditional DRAM and enterprise solid-state drives is also contributing to the company's performance.

While the overall outlook remains strong, analyst projections have been reduced by 7.7% to 8% since late August. This adjustment is attributed to the moderation of memory chip price gains and the strengthening of the South Korean won, which impacts the conversion of global dollar-denominated sales into local currency.

The results highlight the dominance of AI spending as a driver for memory demand. As Samsung gains market share, competition with SK hynix for supply contracts with AI chip designers is expected to intensify. Investors are looking to the October 8 guidance release to confirm these profit figures and provide further insight into HBM4 shipments and pricing trends.