Bitcoin Avoids Realized Price Breakdown for First Bear Market Since 2017
Glassnode said Bitcoin never closed below its aggregate cost basis during the current bear market, breaking a pattern seen in previous cycles as ETF inflows and spot volume rebound.
Bitcoin did not record a daily close below its realized price during the current bear market, according to Glassnode’s September 23, 2026 on-chain report. The result marks a break from every previous Bitcoin bear cycle since at least 2017.
Realized price tracks Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis by valuing each coin at the price where it last moved on-chain and averaging that value across the supply. Trading below the metric indicates that the typical BTC holder is sitting on an unrealized loss.
Even at the June 2026 low, Bitcoin held above that threshold. By comparison, BTC remained below realized price for extended periods during the 2018-2019 and 2022-2023 bear markets.
Glassnode’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric also stayed positive throughout the cycle. While some holders realized losses, the network never moved into an aggregate unrealized loss position.
The share of Bitcoin supply in profit still fell to levels comparable with November 2022. Glassnode’s data suggests losses were widespread but relatively shallow, keeping sell pressure below the capitulation seen in earlier cycles.
By late September 2026, Bitcoin had moved back above the True Market Mean at approximately $77,000. BTC was trading near a long-term holder supply cluster between $84,000 and $85,000.
Glassnode identified the mean Market-Value-to-Realized-Value price near $96,700 as the next key resistance level. Options gamma positioning was concentrated in a similar range between $95,000 and $97,000.
Demand has also picked up through US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which drew approximately $1.3 billion across five trading sessions, the largest intake since early July. Spot trading volume more than doubled from its recent lows.
Glassnode pointed to spot ETFs as one structural difference from the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, giving investors a way to buy and hold Bitcoin through traditional brokerage accounts.
Weekly net realized profit and loss during the recovery remained well below the levels recorded at the 2024-2025 peaks. That indicates holders have not taken profits as aggressively as they did when Bitcoin was setting new highs.
