JPMorgan Projects Tesla to Dominate Robotaxi Market with Owned Fleet
JPMorgan analysts project Tesla could generate $320 billion in robotaxi revenue by 2035, favoring a company-owned fleet model over peer-to-peer sharing.
JPMorgan has updated its outlook on Tesla, raising its price target to $475 per share from $145. This adjustment follows the bank's upgrade of the stock from underweight to neutral in June 2026.
The bank’s analysis suggests that Tesla is positioned to capture nearly all revenue from its robotaxi operations by 2035, with projections reaching $320 billion. According to lead analyst Rajat Gupta, this revenue will likely flow through a fleet directly owned by Tesla rather than a peer-to-peer network where individual car owners rent out their personal vehicles.
Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing service launched in Austin in June 2025 and has since expanded to Dallas, Houston, and the Bay Area. The company is focusing on its purpose-built Cybercab platform rather than utilizing existing Model Y vehicles for the service. The underlying Full Self-Driving software has gathered approximately 10 billion miles of driving data from a global fleet of about 9 million vehicles.
JPMorgan anticipates that Tesla’s total revenue could hit approximately $203 billion by 2030. The bank expects half of this growth to be driven by the robotaxi business and the Optimus humanoid robot program.
The model assumes that a centrally owned fleet provides Tesla with control over maintenance, cleanliness, insurance, and the overall customer experience. By owning the fleet, Tesla retains the full revenue stack, including fares, software margins, and data.
Despite the bullish revenue projections, JPMorgan noted significant execution risks. These include the ongoing process of obtaining regulatory approvals on a city-by-city and state-by-state basis, as well as the challenge of safety validation for fully autonomous vehicles without human supervision.
The competitive landscape remains crowded, with Alphabet’s Waymo, Amazon-backed Zoox, and Chinese firms like Baidu’s Apollo Go and Pony.ai all scaling their own operations. Analysts also highlighted a technical distinction, noting that Tesla relies primarily on cameras and AI, while Waymo utilizes a combination of lidar, radar, and cameras.
